Current trends in the transformation of fisheries production: from fishing to aquaculture
https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2026-203-158-177
EDN: PXPNYH
Abstract
Purpose: to characterize the processes of transformation of the global fishery in the context of the accelerated development of aquaculture under the influence of factors of various origins.
Method: the study employs the method of constructing relative values of structure, dynamics, comparison and intensity; calculation of descriptive characteristics of distribution; assessment of the rank correlation coefficient; time series modeling.
Novelty: a detailed analysis is conducted of the influence of transformation factors in fisheries and the growing role of aquaculture, taking into account the differentiation of conditions and production features in individual sectors of the industry; the importance of linking economic and biological factors in analyzing the directions and development prospects of aquaculture species is substantiated.
Results: the role of various factors in the feasibility and intensity of aquaculture development is demonstrated and assessed; key factors highlighted include the growth of global demand for fishery products, the limitation and depletion of natural resources, the differentiation of various aquaculture branches by labor intensity and resource consumption, the market level of ex-farm prices, production profitability, biological characteristics of aquatic animal species, as well as societal attitudes toward the quality disparity between aquaculture products and wild-caught products; using ARIMA models built on data from 1950 to 2023 for each aggregated group of aquaculture products, the statistical behavior of their dynamic series is described, providing insight into development patterns and forecasting capabilities; a short-term forecast of production volumes is made for the main aquaculture product groups, based on which the expected direction of the industry’s transformation in the coming years is predicted.
About the Authors
A. V. Loseva
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation («Finuniversity»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
49/2, Prosp. Leningradsky, Moscow, 125167
A. P. Tsypin
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation («Finuniversity»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
49/2, Prosp. Leningradsky, Moscow, 125167
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Review
For citations:
Loseva A.V., Tsypin A.P. Current trends in the transformation of fisheries production: from fishing to aquaculture. Trudy VNIRO. 2026;203:158-177. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2026-203-158-177. EDN: PXPNYH
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