Прогнозирование численности кеты на Южных Курильских островах

Abstract

In this paper, the results of our own research conducted at hatcheries of Iturup Island during spawning approaches of chum salmon in 2014-2018 and results of the analysis of literary data on reproduction and fishery of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta near the South Kuril Islands are given. Despite the existence of modern methods for assessment of abundance and biomass of future generations, the forecasts of Pacific salmon catch are often incorrect. Now the main problem of forecasting system is associated with critically insufficient volume of data. The forecast errors are largely related to inadequacy of methods for determination of a share of fish released from different hatcheries. In our work, to forecast catch of hatchery- rearing chum salmon in 2019 and 2020, the method of calculation of return abundance for various age groups is used (by coefficient of return from released juveniles with further splitting on annual classes by the rate of maturing). The proposed method of calculation is compared to the methods developed by other specialists of fishery science. The analysis of information collected for assessment of chum salmon stock allows to suppose that quality control of biofishery statistics will increase the forecast accuracy.