Long-term forecast of Russian herring catch in the Baltic Sea
https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2021-186-78-90
Abstract
The aim of this article is to forecast of the Russian catch of the Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras for the next decade has been carried out. The necessity of this study is primarily due to socio-economic factors: the modernization of the fishing industry of the Kaliningrad region, increasing the volume of catches and processing of herring, capacity planning of fishing and fish processing companies in the region in the coming years. The stocks of commercial fish species in the Baltic Sea are transboundary. Scientific cooperation between the Baltic countries of the European Union and the Russian Federation is carried out in an international scientific organization dealing with the problems of complex study and exploitation of biological resources of the seas and oceans — the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) in the framework of international regulation of fishing and fishing of aquatic biological resources in the Baltic Sea. At present, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the herring stock, including in connection with the changes that have occurred in the ecosystem of the Baltic.
Methods used: the forecast is based on three scenario calculations using a proven at the international level within the software ICES MFDP (Multi Fleet Deterministic Projection). Long-term series of biostatistical data by age group were used. The biological reference points recommended by ICES, fishing mortality, and the boundary reference point for spawning biomass were used to assess the possible catch.
Novelty: such a long-term forecasting of the Russian catch for Baltic herring has not been performed before.
Result: we obtained the possible values of the spawning stock biomass to 2030 and the Russian catches of herring in the Baltic Sea until 2029 in the current conditions of a decrease in the size of the herring stock below precautionary approach, gradually approaching the lower reference point.
Practical significance: long-term forecast of herring catch in the Russian zone can serve as guidelines for fishing organizations when planning the sustainability of production indicators until 2030.
About the Authors
I. S. Trufanova
Atlantic Branch of VNIRO («AtlantNIRO»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Inna S. Trufanova
5, Dm. Donskoy st., Kaliningrad, 236022
V. M. Amosova
Atlantic Branch of VNIRO («AtlantNIRO»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Victoria М. Amosova
5, Dm. Donskoy st., Kaliningrad, 236022
References
1. Amosova V. M., Vasil’eva T.G., Zezera A. S. 2018. Prospects of development of domestic sprat fishery in the Baltic Sea 2025 // Trudy VNIRO. Vol. 171. P. 39–55. (In Russ.).
2. Amosova V. M., Zezera A. S., Karpushevskaya A. I., Karpushevskij I. V., Patokina F. A., Dmitrieva M. A., Vinokur M. L., Shumilova K. Yu. 2017. Biological and hydrological components describing the long-term changes and the current state of cod Gadus morhua callarias in the Baltic Sea (Gdansk basin, subdivision ICES26) // Problems of fisheries. Vol. 18. № 1. P. 42–51. (In Russ.).
3. Biryukov N. P. 1970. Herring in the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad: AtlantNIRO. 209 pp. (In Russ.).
4. Zezera A. S. 2009. Long-term Changes of the Abiotic Conditions in the Baltic Sea (1975–2007) // Fisheries and Biological Research by AtlantNIRO in 2006–2007. Vol. 1. The Baltic Sea and Lagoons. Kaliningrad. P. 6–17. (In Russ.).
5. Zezera A. S., Ivanovich V. M. 2011. Changes in climate, abiotic conditions and stocks of the main commercial fish species in the Southeast Baltic in recent decades // Proceedings of XV conf. on fishing oceanology, dedicated to the 150th anniversary of the birth of Academician N. M. Knipovich. Kaliningrad: AtlantNIRO Press. P. 123–126. (In Russ.).
6. Zezera A. S., Ivanovich V. M., Patokina F. A., Karpushevskiy I. V., Vasilyeva T. G. 2012. Changes in the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea (southeastern part, the Gdansk basin, 26 ICES subdivision) in recent decades // Proceedings of XI conf. of fish forecasting problems, dedicated to the 150th anniversary of the birth of Academician N. M. Knipovich. 22–24 may 2012. Murmansk: PINRO Press. P. 28–31. (In Russ.).
7. Zezera A. S., Amosova V. M., Patokina F. A., Karpushevskiy I. V., Vasilyeva T. G., Kalinina N. A. 2014. Results of integrated analysis of changes in aboitic conditions and stocks values of main commercial fish species in the Baltic Sea (south-eastern part, the Gdansk Basin, ICES subdivision 26) // Fisheries and Biological Research by AtlantNIRO in 2010–2013. Vol.1. The Baltic Sea and Lagoons. Kaliningrad. Trudy AtlantNIRO. P. 6–19. (In Russ.).
8. Karpushevskiy I. V., Zezera A. S., Ivanovich V. M. 2013. Adaptive features of populations pelagic and demersal fish in the spatial and temporal dynamics salinity waters factor of the Baltic Sea // Proceedings of the ZIN RAN. Supplement № 3. SPb. P. 128–135. (In Russ.).
9. Karpushevskiy I. V., Konstantinov V. V., Amosova V. M., Zezera A. S., Dmitrieva M. A., Karpushevskaya A. I . Methodological manual for the collection and primary processing of biostatistical materials on fishing vessels in the waters of the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. Kaliningrad: AtlantNIRO, 2013. 85 pp. (In Russ.).
10. Ojaveer E. A. 1987. The Baltic Herrings (biology and fishery). M.: Agropromizdat, 205 pp. (In Russ.).
11. Trufanova I. S. 2017 a. Age-length composition and abundance of the autumn-spawning herring Clupea harengus membras of the southeast Baltic and its significance for the Russian fishery in 1992–2015 // Trudy AtlantNIRO. New series. Vol. 1, № 2. Kaliningrad: AtlantNIRO. P. 154–165. (In Russ.).
12. Trufanova I. S. 2017 b. Seasonal distribution of the Russian catches and age-lenth composition of Baltic herrin Clupea harengus membras in the ICES subdivision 26 of the Baltic Sea in 1992-2015 // Trudy AtlantNIRO. New series. Vol. 1, № 3. Kaliningrad: AtlantNIRO. P. 91–107. (In Russ.).
13. Trufanova I. S. 2018 a. Catch, abundance dynamics, and age structure of the open-sea Baltic herring in the ICES subdivision 26 in 2011–2017 // Trudy VNIRO. V. 171. P. 56–67. (In Russ.).
14. Trufanova I. S. 2018 b. Structure of the russian commercial Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras catches in the 26th ICES subdivision of the Baltic Sea in 1992–2015 // Problems of fisheries. V. 19. № 2. P. 181–192. (In Russ.).
15. Amosova V.M, Zezera A. S., Karpushevskaya A. I., Karpushevskiy I. V., Patokina F. A., Dmitrieva M. A. 2016. Integrated analysis of several biological/hydrological components and cod stomach data in the Gdansk Basin of the Baltic Sea // ICES ASC Handbook, Annual Science Conference (ASC), Riga, Latvia, 19-23 September 2016. ICES CM 2016/F:665. P. 32.
16. Aro E. 1989. A review of fish migration patterns in the Baltic // Rapp. P.-v. Réun. Cons. int. Explor. Mer. V. 190. P. 72–96.
17. Fetter M., Groth B., Kestner D., Wyshinski M. 1992. Guide for the use of Baltic herring otoliths in fisheries studies // Fischerei-Forschung. № 29. P. 18–42.
18. Horbowy J., Luzenczyk A. 2016. Effects of multispecies and density dependent factors on MSY reference points: Example of the Baltic Sea sprat // Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. 74. 10.1139/cjfas-2016–0220. R3: 1–27.
19. Kompowski A. 1971. The types of otoliths in herring from the Southern Baltic // Prace Morskiego Instytutu Rybackiego. Vol. 16. P. 109–141.
20. McCullagh P., Nelder J. A., 1989. Generalized Linear Models, 2nd ed. Chapman & Hall, London. 511 pp.
21. MacKenzie B.R., Koster F. W. 2004. Fish production and climate: sprat in the Baltic Sea // Ecology. V. 85. Р. 784–794.
22. Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS). 2019. ICES Scientific Reports. 1:20. 651 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5949
23. Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS). 2020 a. ICES Scientific Reports. 2:45. 643 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.6024
24. Report of the Inter-Benchmark Process on Baltic Sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ) and Herring ( Clupea harengus) (IBPBash). 2020 b. ICES Scientific Reports. 2:34. 44 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5971
25. Report of the ICES Advisory Committee. 2020 c. Herring ( Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 25–29 and 32, excluding the Gulf of Riga (central Baltic Sea). ICES Advice 2020, her.27.25–2932. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.5828.
26. Report of the Working Group on Baltic International Fish Survey (WGBIFS). 2020 d. ICES Scientific Reports. 1:37. 79 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7679
27. Report of the Workshop on age validation studies of small pelagic species (WKVALPEL). 2020 e. ICES Scientific Reports. 2:15. 76 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5966
28. Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS). 2021 a. ICES Scientific Reports. 3:53. 717 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.8187
29. Report of the ICES Advisory Committee. 2021 b. Herring ( Clupea harengus) in subdivisions 20–24, spring spawners (Skagerrak, Kattegat, and western Baltic). ICES Advice 2021, her 20–24. her.27. 20–24. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.7766
30. Report of the Working Group on Baltic International Fish Survey (WGBIFS; outputs from 2020 meeting). 2021 c. ICES Scientific Reports. 3:02. 539 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7679
31. Shepherd J. G. 1997. Prediction of year-class strength by calibration regression analysis of multiple recruit index series // ICES Journal of Marine Science. Vol. 54. P. 741–752.
32. Popiel J. 1958. Differentiation of the biological groups of herring in the Baltic // Rapp. P.-v. Réun. Cons. int. Explor. Mer. Vol. 143. P. 114–121.
33. Popiel J. 1984. On the biology of the Baltic Herring // Reports of the Sea Fisheries Institute Gdynia. № 19. P. 1–7.
34. Sparre P. 1991. Introduction to multispecies virtual population analysis // ICES mar. Sei. Symp., 193. P. 12–21.
Review
For citations:
Trufanova I.S., Amosova V.M. Long-term forecast of Russian herring catch in the Baltic Sea. Trudy VNIRO. 2021;186:78-90. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2021-186-78-90
Email this article 