Methodology for forecasting the financial and economic consequences of institutional transformations: The Case of Enterprises in the Kamchatka territory

Abstract

The objective of the study is to examine methodological approaches to forecasting the financial consequences of institutional transformations in the Pacific salmon fishing sector of Kamchatka Krai.

The results demonstrate that the calculation of net present value demonstrates the differentiation of the financial consequences of institutional transformations depending on the enterprises’ affiliation with different clusters.

The study materials include official data from the Federal Agency for Fisheries and the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution “VNIRO” on the catch of the main Pacific salmon species, customs statistics of importing countries, data from Rosstat, Rosselkhoznadzor, and the Center for Fisheries and Tourism Development on the production and turnover of salmon caviar, as well as price information from industry news agencies.

The research methods include two econometric models: a one-dimensional time series model and a cluster model. Scientific novelty: an analysis of institutional transformations in one segment of the domestic fisheries industry was performed, and a forecast of the financial consequences of these transformations was calculated.

The practical significance of the study is confirmed by the fact that the main findings of the study were used to refine the regulatory framework, and the incompleteness of institutional reforms increases the demand for a scientifically based forecast of their financial consequences.