Forecasting of water temperature in the Kola section based on the analysis of secular variability of hydrometeorological and astrogeophysical factors
https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2026-203-85-105
EDN: HODGWC
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to characterize the long-term variability of Atlantic water temperature in the Barents Sea in 1900–2023 and to assess the possibility of its forecasting using hydrometeorological and astrogeophysical factors.
The material for the study was water temperature in the Kola section, climate indices (global surface temperature index for the Northern Hemisphere, indices of the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal oscillations) and astrogeophysical parameters (solar activity, total solar irradiance, pole coordinates and rotation axis nutation of the Earth) for 1900–2023.
Methods of descriptive statistics as well as comparative, correlation, regression and harmonic analyses were applied.
Results: The year-to-year changes in Atlantic water temperature in the Barents Sea in 1900–2023 were characterized, with an intensive increase (0.37 °C per 10 years) occurring since the late 1970s. Two cold (1900–1929, 1963–1988) and two warm (1930–1962, 1989–2023) periods were distinguished, with the modern warming being stronger. Multiple linear regression equations were constructed to forecast Barents Sea water temperature for 2 and 6 years ahead. The most adequate regression model was selected for practical use. It includes the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (contribution of 11%), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (28%), solar activity (5%), and the X-coordinate of the Earth’s pole (11%). Experimental forecasts of water temperature in the Kola section have been compiled for 2024–2029, according to which it will remain at a high level in the coming years.
Practical significance: The obtained results are useful for a better understanding of the causes of interannual variability of water temperature in the Barents Sea and can be used for its long-term forecasting.
About the Author
A. G. Trofimov
Polar branch of VNIRO (N. M. Knipovich «PINRO»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
6, Academician Knipovich St., Murmansk, 183038
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Review
For citations:
Trofimov A.G. Forecasting of water temperature in the Kola section based on the analysis of secular variability of hydrometeorological and astrogeophysical factors. Trudy VNIRO. 2026;203:85-105. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2026-203-85-105. EDN: HODGWC
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