Study of cyclic price volatility for fish products in Russia
https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2024-198-137-147
Abstract
The purpose of the work: to test the hypothesis about the existence of periodically changing price volatility over time and to determine the key characteristics of this process.
Methods used: decomposition of price dynamics for the main types of fish products in Russia with the allocation and analysis of its components; to construct a model describing the trajectory of price changes, the provisions of the spider web theory were used, in particular, the Kagan model, transformed into the harmonic oscillator model.
Results: it was found that prices for fish products in the Russian Federation, in addition to the general upward trend, also have cyclical volatility and are subject to shock changes from time to time; the parameters of price fluctuations were determined.
Scientific novelty: A nonlinear model has been developed that reflects in aggregate form the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors on prices for fish products. The model describes cyclical price changes in the form of relaxation fluctuations.
Practical significance: The study of the recessive characteristics of price volatility made it possible to identify the key parameters of possible measures of industry policy. These measures can become part of the socioeconomic policy.
About the Authors
A. G. Mnatsakanyan
Kaliningrad State Technical University («KSTY»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
1, Sovetsky Prospekt, Kaliningrad, 236022, Russia
A. M. Karlov
Kaliningrad State Technical University («KSTY»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
1, Sovetsky Prospekt, Kaliningrad, 236022, Russia
A. G. Kharin
Kaliningrad State Technical University («KSTY»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
1, Sovetsky Prospekt, Kaliningrad, 236022, Russia
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Review
For citations:
Mnatsakanyan A.G., Karlov A.M., Kharin A.G. Study of cyclic price volatility for fish products in Russia. Trudy VNIRO. 2024;198(1):137-147. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.36038/2307-3497-2024-198-137-147
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