Teleconnections in the atmosphere and ocean as a basis of the long-range fishery forecasting
Abstract
The global climatic system is characterized by existence of the so-called teleconnections which represent statistically significant synchronous correlations in the remote areas of Earth. In the paper, a review and detailed description of the main teleconnection patterns (TP) in the atmosphere and in the ocean is given. It has been shown that the climatic regime shift in the second half of the 1980s accompanied by strengthening of the North Atlantic Oscillation and eastward displacement of its centers resulted in essential changes in position and intensity of the centers of other teleconnection patterns in North Atlantic, Eurasian and West Pacific sectors and also in the character of their impact on surface water layer in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The teleconnections in the atmosphere and ocean have significant effects on the long-term changes in recruitment and survival conditions of various target species. The close connection between survival conditions of walleye pollock in the northern Okhotsk Sea and intensity of the Subarctic gyre, which, in turn, depends on phase of the North Pacific Oscillation/North Pacific Gyre Oscillation was revealed. At the same time, changes in abundance of recruitment of East Kamchatka walleye pollock are opposite to changes in the mean winter index of the Arctic Oscillation. Thus, the idea of teleconnections in the “atmosphere-ocean” system, the retrospective analysis of the related climatic regimes and prediction of the expected climate changes in one or another region based on this analysis may become a reliable basis for the medium- and long-range forecasting of tendencies of changes in many target species stocks of the Russian fishery.
About the Authors
A. S. Krovnin
Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI «VNIRO»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
B. N. Kotenev
Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI «VNIRO»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
N. V. Mordasova
Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI «VNIRO»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
G. P. Moury
Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI «VNIRO»)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Krovnin A.S., Kotenev B.N., Mordasova N.V., Moury G.P. Teleconnections in the atmosphere and ocean as a basis of the long-range fishery forecasting. Trudy VNIRO. 2018;173:33-65. (In Russ.)
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